Asymmetric risks in a busy week ahead

Rising yields, widening credit spreads, and an AI-debt boom collide with UK tax risk and an electricity bottleneck questioning AI hardware demand.

• Oil/yield spike: Trump rejected Iran's overtures, Houthi strikes hit an east-west pipeline; crude and diesel are firm and global bond yields sit near highs (Japan front-end at 1990s highs, Germany-France spread ~110bp).
• Credit stress rising but modest: US high-yield vs Treasury spreads widened 12bp to ~294bp, three straight days wider, still far below the ~450bp Liberation Day peak or 335bp March Iran-conflict level.

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