Why the China Threat Is Overblown | Logan Wright

China's credit-fueled growth model has exhausted itself, leaving Beijing with far less capacity to reverse structural decline than markets assume.

• Largest credit boom in a century: China's post-2008 credit expansion hit $24-27 trillion between 2008-2017 against roughly $6 trillion in GDP, raising credit/GDP ratios by 80 points.
• Data understates collapse: 2022 new housing starts fell 40%, construction equipment hours fell 14%, and Alibaba's Taobao/Tmall sales fell 6-7%, yet Beijing still reported 3% GDP growth.

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