Equities Markets Are Historically Overpriced. Here’s What Comes Next.

Padgett sees the S&P historically overpriced versus fiscal flows and favors raising cash ahead of September-October tax-drain seasonality.

• Yields aren't the danger: Douglas Padgett argues rising yields reflect endogenous money creation, not a fixed loanable-funds pool, adding $1.7 trillion in interest income this year and $25B+ per rate hike.
• Credit cycle limit approaching: He watches H.8 bank credit growth—once year-over-year acceleration hits 10-12%, private debt-to-GDP gets large enough that credit expansion stops adding growth, risking a Minsky-style bubble in NDFI loans.

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