Robert Kaplan: Can America and China Avoid a Catastrophic Conflict?

Kaplan warns ambiguous U.S. signals on defending Taiwan risk a 1914-style miscalculation with China that could be catastrophic for global markets.

• Taiwan timeline slipping: Kaplan says Xi Jinping's original 2027 deadline for a deployable military capability to retake Taiwan has reportedly moved to 2029, with Taiwan the last item on China's Qing-era reunification checklist after Hong Kong and Macau.
• Trump ambiguity risks miscalculation: Kaplan warns Trump's remarks (Taiwan "stole" the chip industry, reluctance to fly 9,500 miles to fight) could make Beijing wrongly assume the U.S. won't defend Taiwan, echoing Britain's 1914 miscalculation over Belgium.

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