Simon Sebag Montefiore on the Origins of the Modern Middle East

Montefiore argues the 2003 Iraq War—not ancient hatreds—handed Iran its strongest regional dominance since the 18th century.

• Ottoman collapse drove modern nationalism: Montefiore argues the Ottoman shift from tolerant "Ottomanism" to a Turkish-nationalist, quasi-eugenicist ideology under the Three Pashas produced the Armenian genocide and set the template for exclusionary nation-building across the region.
• New states, new problems: Turkey, Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Jordan and Israel are all 20th-century creations (only Egypt and Iran are ancient states), each built on unresolved minority tensions—Kurds, Alawites, Assyrians, Shias.

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