Anthropic IPO at Risk, Meta's Muse Pop, Token Prices Fall, Open Source Gains Share, Alignment Fails

Open-source AI models have flipped token-usage share from 80% closed to 80% open in 12 weeks, pressuring Anthropic and OpenAI's IPO valuations.

• Open source flips the market: Token usage inverted from 80/20 closed-to-open to 80/20 open-to-closed in just 12 weeks per a viral Vercel chart, with models like Xiaomi's MIMO (309B params) matching Opus 5 and GPT-5.6 for free download.
• IPOs slipping and shrinking: Anthropic ($350B target) and OpenAI ($1.2T) both delayed IPOs; Polymarket odds of Anthropic going public in 2026 fell from 96% to 76%; Chamath predicts pricing well below $2T given liability disclosures.

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