Why the Bond Market May Be the Stock Market's Biggest Risk

Goldman's hedge fund strategist sees the bond market, driven by deficits and AI CapEx, as the top risk to a slowing-but-still-positive stock rally.

• Bond market is top risk: Tony Pascarello calls the bond market the "number one clear and present danger" to stocks, with 10-year yields making higher highs amid deficit and AI-CapEx bond supply concerns.
• Fed repricing sharply: Markets began 2025 pricing rate cuts but now expect roughly four hikes; Powell's recent hawkish hike anchored the back end and breakevens, briefly seen as a stock-market win.

Themes, sentiment and reasons are AI-written paraphrases, checked so they never quote an episode. They may contain errors. Not investment advice. Episodes remain the property of their creators.