The Single Smartest Case Against AI Doom

AI's economic and safety impacts will unfold over years via organizational diffusion, not sudden superintelligence-driven transformation, the authors argue.

• Normal technology framework: Arvind Narayanan and Sayash Kapoor argue AI resembles electricity or the Industrial Revolution—transformative but diffusing slowly through organizational and regulatory bottlenecks, not overnight.
• Four-stage diffusion model: methods (transformers) applications (coding agents) early adoption (vibe coding failed) structural transformation, which historically takes decades, citing electric dynamos taking 40 years to reorganize factories.

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