The Region that Defies Prediction. The Middle East’s Past Upheavals and the Storms Yet to Break. With Author Simon Sebag Montefiore

Montefiore sees a 2-3 year reordering of Middle East oil infrastructure and alliances as US credibility fades and Iran's aging generals, not clerics, hold real power.

• Book's framing: Montefiore's The Cauldron starts in 1900-1902 (Ibn Saud seizing Riyadh) to center Middle Eastern agency over the Ottoman/Persian empires, rejecting Western-centric narratives.
• Pipelines and geography: With Hormuz a 'vanishing asset' for Iran, he predicts a 2-3 year 're-plumbing' of oil routes via pipelines to the Mediterranean (e.g., Haifa), constrained by anti-Israel domestic politics.

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