The Bond Market Pain Isn't Over | Weekly Roundup

A 40-year rates veteran argues AI-capex-linked private credit stress, not a Fed pivot or jobs data, is the likeliest catalyst to finally reverse the bond selloff.

• 10-year at 5.22%: ZB futures fell nearly 10 full points in two and a half months; DCP says the move traces to the February pop tied to the Iran war, and a 6% 30-year plus 5.5% front end could be needed to actually offset AI capex's inflationary pull.
• Nothing on DCP's checklist has fired: Fed hike signaling isn't ending, AI capex hasn't slowed (Oracle a wildcard), crack spreads haven't rolled over, and jobs won't spike because employers are hoarding workers — so the 'pain trade' of higher yields persists.

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