Global Rates: Thoughts on long end EUR curve, SSAs and the recent Riksbank and Norges Bank meetings

Rising ECB terminal-rate pricing, not unusual technicals, is driving the 10-30 EUR curve's sharpest flattening since March.

• 10-30 EUR curve flattens sharply: Steepener unwound from +30bp early 2026 to near flat, driven by one-year, one-year Ester (ECB terminal pricing) marching ~50bp higher on hawkish ECB and energy prices.
• Positioning amplifies the move: Beta between 10-30s and terminal rate pricing is more negative than in past hiking cycles, which JPM attributes to heavy prior steepener positioning; JPM stays sidelined given volatility.

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