Global Commodities: Day 31 and beyond

A 30-day US diesel export ban could ease prices short-term but risks eroding America's strategic refining investment advantage long-term.

• Diesel export ban math: US consumes ~3.6mn b/d diesel, exports 1.3-1.6mn b/d; a 30-day ban plus extended Jones Act waiver (through Nov 15) could rebuild inventories to 5-year average within two weeks.
• Post-ban reversal risk: after ~30 days, inventories could swell to 140mn barrels, crushing Gulf Coast cracks and refining margins, forcing crude runs and gasoline output lower too.

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