The Global Diesel Problem

Diesel crack spreads hit a record ~$100/barrel as Middle East and Russian refinery outages remove 1.5mb/d from an 8mb/d seaborne market.

• Historic diesel spike: Crack spreads (diesel price over crude) hit roughly $100/barrel, pushing nominal diesel prices above $200/barrel, exceeding the 2022 crisis peak of $60-70.
• Supply loss concentrated: About 4-5 million barrels/day of global refining (5-6% of the 85 million b/d system) is offline, split evenly between Middle East refineries locked behind the Strait of Hormuz and Russian refineries hit by Ukrainian drone strikes.

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