#884: How to Spot 10-Year Trends and Build Billion-Dollar Companies — Kevin Ryan of DoubleClick, MongoDB, Business Insider, and Many More

Ryan builds and funds companies by betting on trends durable enough to matter in ten years, not two.

• 10-year trend framework: Ryan bets only on trends he believes persist a decade, then asks 'second order' — who supplies the winners; missing YouTube in 2003 (bandwidth costs vs. ad revenue about to cross) taught him this before it hit $300B.
• AlleyCorp's returns: Fund I is at roughly 60% IRR, the family office fund the same, and the new $335M Fund II is in that range too — no fund has dropped below 50% IRR.

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