The EA Panic Is Overblown | Noah Smith

Smith argues AI's economic impact so far is modest (a few hundred billion in revenue) despite intense hype, and EA/rationalist influence is transparent, not conspiratorial.

• Four eras of SF tech: Noah Smith traces SF culture from early-2000s "techno-hippies" (Jack Dorsey, raves, Burning Man) to a post-Facebook-IPO/2008-crisis "corporate striver" era, to a pandemic-era collapse, to today's AI boom.
• AI's GDP impact still small: Smith estimates AI has added only "a couple hundred billion" in revenue across labs and tech companies, calling it "barely increased total factor productivity" so far.

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