How to Invest for A Hundred Years | Inigo Fraser Jenkins

Long-horizon investors should replace cross-asset benchmarking and correlation-based diversification with governance-driven, inflation-beating real-return targets.

• Recency bias warning: Fraser Jenkins argues the post-1980 regime of falling inflation, negative stock-bond correlation, and strong real returns was historically exceptional, not the norm—comparable only to the pre-WWI Pax Britannica period.
• Correlation regime shift: Stock-bond correlation turned positive after 2022, which he calls a 'return to normality' consistent with the prior 200 years, undermining 60/40-style diversification assumptions.

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