Shashank Joshi on Why Russia Won't Invade NATO—Yet

Russia aims to fracture NATO cohesion via hybrid attacks, not conquer territory, while the Houthis and Iran threaten global oil chokepoints.

• No imminent invasion: Joshi says intelligence shows no Russian mobilization akin to 2022, and Baltic states like Estonia/Latvia see no elevated risk of conquest.
• Hybrid escalation instead: Russia is raising risk tolerance via drones near cargo planes, sabotage of power plants and railways, and closing the Estonian border, aiming to fracture NATO cohesion rather than seize territory.

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