Stock Market Stuck In Neutral... Here Is When It Might Break

Record equity concentration, near-zero put demand, and 2008-level short interest suggest fragile market complacency heading into typically weak Q4 midterm-year seasonality.

• Fed hikes unanimously: The FOMC raised rates 25bp in a 12-0 vote; Kirk Chisholm frames the Fed as inherently political but says this move was consensus-correct given inflation risk.
• Debt trajectory accelerating: National debt hit $40.1T, up from $19.9T (2017) and $36.2T (2021/Biden exit), now compounding near $1T added per 90-100 days.

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