Why Markets May Be Pricing in Too Many Fed Rate Hikes

Kaplan expects only one more Fed hike to ~4.25%, fewer than markets are currently pricing in.

• Path forward: Kaplan expects just one more Fed hike to roughly 4%–4.25%, then a pause in October before reassessing at December's meeting.
• Market vs. Fed gap: Markets are pricing more hikes than Kaplan sees as likely, reflecting a risk premium tied to oil-price uncertainty and unfamiliarity with Chairman Kevin Warsh's reaction function.

Themes, sentiment and reasons are AI-written paraphrases, checked so they never quote an episode. They may contain errors. Not investment advice. Episodes remain the property of their creators.