Gita Gopinath on Trade, Currencies, and Economic Transformation

Gopinath argues trade imbalances, dollar invoicing, and AI-driven demand are reshaping global macro risk more than standard textbook models predict.

• Trade balances puzzle: Gopinath argues real exchange rates and trade balances are only loosely linked because current-account adjustment can come via either FX depreciation or demand contraction, not necessarily both — citing Australia's decades-long deficits without currency collapse.
• Dollar invoicing distorts pass-through: Her dominant currency paradigm shows ~90% of China's US exports are dollar-priced and sticky, muting exchange-rate pass-through versus near-full pass-through seen with Trump-era tariffs.

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