$FOUR: Shift4 at 6.5x EBITDA. Is the organic growth real? | Emeth Value Capital

Shift4 trades at 6.5x EBITDA pricing in near-zero growth, but hidden balance-sheet data suggests double-digit organic growth is real.

• Cheap on paper: Shift4 trades at roughly 6.5x EBITDA versus company-stated 11% organic growth in Q2, down from $120/share eighteen months ago to $42 today.
• Hidden growth signal: Gross equipment under lease (Shift4 Dine POS) grew from a nominal $40M pre-2021 to a ~$400M run rate today, with over 80% of installs being net-new merchants, not migrations.

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