The Next AI Trade | Liam Dalton | Ep. 4

Dalton sees semiconductor capital equipment as the next mispriced AI trade if memory makers abandon capacity discipline, while flagging diesel prices, rates, and midterm politics as underpriced busts risks.

• Memory is the new choke point: Micron, SK Hynix and Samsung post ~90% gross margins on memory even as CapEx/revenue sits near 17%, well below the 30-40% historical boom norm, implying discipline could break.
• Game theory of defection: Hosts argue the memory 'cartel' breaks if one player (likely Micron) takes hyperscaler-guaranteed financing (e.g., from Google) to build greenfield fabs, triggering a rush by SK Hynix/Samsung and a step-change in wafer-fab-equipment demand.

Themes, sentiment and reasons are AI-written paraphrases, checked so they never quote an episode. They may contain errors. Not investment advice. Episodes remain the property of their creators.