Are Markets About to Take Off Again? | September 21, 2026

Exhausted bearish positioning and reaccelerating South Korean semiconductor exports point to a possible Q4 market rally, per Steno.

• Market setup mirrors March/April: Steno cites extreme positioning—market net 44% long oil futures, AAII bearish—despite a hawkish Fed hike and rising CPI, suggesting exhaustion and potential upside into Q4.
• Crypto rally not politician-driven: Steno links the rally to short-dollar trades tied to Bessent's long-bond buybacks and debt debasement fears, plus AI-driven agent economy demand for blockchain microtransactions.

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